Kamala Harris Leads Trump in Four Polling Averages of Pivotal Swing States

Amid this year’s presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in three pivotal swing states, according to four national poll aggregators on Saturday.
Harris, who entered the presidential race nearly 100 days before November’s election after President Joe Biden stepped down from the race on July 21, has been performing better in most national aggregate polls than Trump, the GOP’s presidential nominee.
However, while national polls indicate popular vote, theydon’t necessarily translate to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to clinch the White House. That’s why candidates focus intensely on swing states, aiming to sway voters in these pivotal areas that are critical to securing the necessary Electoral College votes.
If Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, along with every other state and district that Biden won by at least 6 points in 2020, she will have 270 Electoral College votes, securing a clear path to the White House.
Four different poll aggregators show Harris doing just that. Aggregate polls are consistently updated as new polling data is added, shifting the averages in real time. The following percentages are as of Saturday morning.
Harris also appears to be climbing in other close races as well, such as Arizona and Nevada, which could offer other potential pathways to the White House.
In Michigan, aggregate polls are showing Harris leading Trump by around 2 percentage points.
The Hill’s polling aggregator finds Harris ahead of Trump by 1.7 percentage points, with 48.1 percent to his 46.4 percent. The New York Times, meanwhile, shows a 2-point margin, with Harris garnering 49 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 47 percent. When independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included, he narrows the margin to 1 point, taking 5 percent of the vote and dropping Harris to 45 percent and Trump to 44 percent.
FiveThirtyEight puts Harris at 45.9 percent of the vote to Trump’s 43.3 percent, a 2.5-point margin. Statistician Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin shows the highest margin lead for Harris, at 2.9 points, with 46 percent compared to Trump’s 43.1 percent.
In 2020, Biden won Michigan’s 15 Electoral College votes by 2.8 percentage points.
Aggregate polls predict a tighter race in Pennsylvania, but still forecast Harris winning the state’s 19 Electoral College votes.
With the tightest margin, The Hill puts Harris ahead of Trump in the swing state by 0.8 percentage points, with 48.2 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 47.4 percent. The New York Times shows a slightly wider margin, with Harris at 49 percent and Trump at 48 percent. The margin remains the same when Kennedy Jr. is included, dropping both down to 46 percent and 45 percent, respectively.
FiveThirtyEight has Trump trailing Harris by 1.3 percentage points, at 44.7 percent compared to her 46 percent, while the Silver Bulletin puts Harris at 46.6 percent to Trump’s 44.7 percent.
In the 2020 election, Biden won Pennsylvania, flipping a state Trump that carried in 2016.
The state has been a frequent campaign stop for both candidates. The Republican National Convention (RNC), where Trump was nominated and announced Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate, was held in Milwaukee, and last week, both Harris and Vance held rallies in Eau Claire.
Harris appears to be performing the strongest in Wisconsin among these three swing states, with The Hill showing her leading Trump by 3.4 percentage points, with 49.5 percent to his 46.1 percent. FiveThirtyEight shows a 2.8 percent margin, with Harris at 47 percent and Trump at 44.1 percent.
The Silver Bulletin finds Harris garnering 47.3 percent of the vote and Trump 44.1 percent, and the New York Times shows a 2 percent different between the candidates, with Harris at 49 percent and Trump at 47 percent.
Biden flipped Wisconsin in the 2020 election by a narrow margin of approximately 0.6 percent. After a recount, Biden was again confirmed as the winner in the state.
Newsweek has reached out to Harris’ and Trump’s campaign for comment via email on Saturday.